The panel has changed a bit this month due to the 5 by-election seats being brought back in to the federal numbers. Also, as was expected, a number of people withdrew from the panel following this month’s changes, but far less than I expected, so my sincere thanks to everyone for sticking with me. Sign up for the panel has been re-opened and will now stay open until the federal election is called.
The different issues questions will all be covered in separate posts (they’re also still open today as short surveys), so this post is just the vote intent poll numbers. This is only the panel: the anonymous responses to short surveys are not included in our polling numbers.
Both major parties lost primary vote support to minor parties, independent support also fell, and the inferred two party preferred narrowed slightly. Putting Mayo back in the mix obviously lifted the Centre Alliance vote significantly.
The vote retention graph shows a great deal of instability in the vote. As this is comparing last month with this month, this excludes the by-election results, and it is not weighted. Read along the rows to see where voters have moved to, and down the columns to see where votes have been gained from. The percentages are of wave 2 vote intention.
There is a bit of disconnect between the vote retention numbers and the vote intention caused by the absence of the by-election seats. A significant number of Labor voters who were supporting Sharkie have returned to their home party in particular, so that 100% retention is a little deceiving. This graph will be a lot more indicative of true vote retention next month.
The September survey will include questions on party support and what you do to support your party of choice. So, if you are a loyal party supporter or volunteer, now is a good time to join the panel.