Ok, it’s close to by-election day, so let’s get straight into it with some quick notes from the by-election seats…
PERTH AND FREO
Perth and Fremantle are stable from Wave 1, with very little movement. Most of the undecided voters have either opted to vote for newly announced candidates, with some going to Caroline Perks, the Greens candidate in Perth. I still have Perth as not safe for Labor, although the sample is not great with a significant male bias. Fremantle, however, is a safe Labor win.
Mayo has seen a significant amount of movement between wave 1 and 2 – as this is our largest and most balanced sample of all the by-election seats, I’m comfortable showing you this graph: this is the vote movement chart which shows what percentage of panel respondents have either stayed with their original vote choice or switched.
The rows are wave 1, the columns are wave 2, and the boxes in the same candidate’s row and column shows their vote retention – e.g. Moogy retained 100% of his vote. Read along the rows to see where other candidates lost votes to, and down the columns to see where they gained votes from – e.g. Sharkie lost 7% of her support in the panel to Moogy, but picked up 20% of the Labor vote. (There seems to have been a definite campaign to get Greens supporters to put Moogy 1, Sharkie 2; meanwhile Labor people are telling us they’ll put Sharkie 1 to make very sure Downer doesn’t win.)
Unsurprisingly, we have Sharkie to win by a mile, possibly on primaries.
Longman has been a difficult seat to analyse – not just because of sample issues (mostly men, mostly older), but because the people in the sample are so disillusioned and anti-everyone it’s difficult to figure out what they might do or what they’re thinking. (That’s a ‘significant finding’ in itself of course.) The Liberal’s negative campaigning has hurt Trevor Ruthenberg here as it has hurt Georgina Downer, and yes, the little lie about the medal has cost him. We have it as a very tight race, Lamb ahead on primaries, but a lot of preferences to count.
What was more interesting in Longman is that even the PHON voters don’t love Pauline Hanson. There are plenty around who do – they like her, but it’s not the adoration that some believe it is. She talks too fast or doesn’t speak clearly enough, she’s ‘not perfect’ but ‘she’s a fighter’. You’ll have to wait until after the by-election for the full analysis of the Hanson questions (it’s good stuff).
Braddon had the greatest amount of movement of all the by-election seats, largely due to the confirmation of Craig Garland as a candidate. After wave 1 I commented that a number of panel members were thinking ‘what else ya got?’ in response to the offerings of Keay and Whiteley, and they’ve jumped at Garland: he’s picked up votes from literally everyone. The greatest share of his votes have come from the I don’t know column and Brett Whiteley, which is not good news for the Liberal Party, as the preference flow from Garland is strongly to Labor. It’ll be close, but I think Keay should retain the seat.
We’ll have the highlighted results from the other questions next week once we’re clear of the by-elections.
Thanks as always to all panel participants.